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If the Panthers end up securing a top-four finish, it will almost be a shame, because we’ll never find out if they were capable of becoming only the third team in rugby league’s 118-season history to emerge from a sudden-death minefield and claim the title from outside the top four.
Brisbane (fifth in 1993) and Canterbury (sixth in 1995) are the only two sides to have defied the odds stacked against them in the play-offs to emerge with the ultimate prize.
Others in more recent times have given it a shake.
North Queensland (2017), Canterbury (2014), the Warriors (2011), Sydney Roosters (2010) and Parramatta (2009) all reached grand finals from outside the top four, only to fall at the final hurdle.
It is almost impossible to envisage any such giant-killing feats unfolding this season, judging by the gulf in class, and recent form, of the top four teams – Canberra, Melbourne, Canterbury and Penrith – compared to their rivals in the rear-view mirror.
Brisbane, after six wins from seven games, were looking ready to make a run, only to lose Adam Reynolds, Ezram Mam and Selwyn Cobbo to injuries in Thursday’s crippling loss to Melbourne.
Likewise, the Warriors, Dolphins and Manly are walking wounded and running out of troops.
Cronulla had strung together four wins in a row before they slipped up with a 22-14 loss to St George Illawarra on Saturday. Their record against the top four teams – one win from five games this season – is also a concern.
They at least have an ace up their sleeve in a favourable draw, which includes a bye sandwiched between home games against struggling Gold Coast and Newcastle, before a last-round showdown against Canterbury.
The Sharks could potentially finish the season with a three-game unbeaten run. But even then, their record in the past three finals campaigns – one win from six games – is surely a concern.
Perhaps only the ninth-placed Roosters, who hammered the Dolphins 64-12 last weekend, are showing any signs of mounting a belated challenge.
As Billy Slater observed on the Sunday Footy Show, a host of finals contenders are “wobbling”, but not the Tricolours.
“The team that are on the rise are the Roosters,” he said. “They played incredibly well on the weekend and are hitting their straps at the right time.”
The Roosters arguably have the strike power to trouble any team. But they have won only two of their past 25 games against Penrith and Melbourne, which is a worrying trend and a concern for the business end of the season.
They are sitting outside the eight on points differential, and can scarcely afford to drop a game in their final four fixtures, against Canterbury (home), Parramatta (away), Melbourne (away) and South Sydney (home).
In other words, while the Roosters appear the team best equipped to upset the top four status quo, there is no guarantee they will even qualify for the finals. They would probably need to win at least three of their final four games to make it, and they haven’t won more than two consecutive games all season.
All of which suggests 2025 will reaffirm the time-honoured theory that it is almost impossible to win the NRL premiership from outside the top four.
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Penrith might still be some chance, should they come unstuck during their tough run into the finals: Melbourne (home), Canberra (home), Canterbury (away) and the Dragons (away).
But after claiming a top-four position in Newcastle last week, the Panthers appear to be timing their run to perfection.
“I think the reason we’re in this position is we lost sight of the ladder a bit,” Cleary said. “[We’re] just sort of focusing on ourselves and trying to improve each week. A lot of the time it’s just us versus us, and that constant battle of getting better, and it’s no different now.”
The other top four teams – Canberra, Melbourne and Canterbury – are entitled to believe they can bring an end to the Penrith dynasty.
The rest of the finalists, as is usually the case, are more than likely just making up the numbers.
NRL is Live and Free on Channel 9 & 9Now
Michael Chammas and Andrew “Joey” Johns dissect the upcoming NRL round, plus the latest footy news, results and analysis. Sign up for the Sin Bin newsletter.
If the Panthers end up securing a top-four finish, it will almost be a shame, because we’ll never find out if they were capable of becoming only the third team in rugby league’s 118-season history to emerge from a sudden-death minefield and claim the title from outside the top four.
Brisbane (fifth in 1993) and Canterbury (sixth in 1995) are the only two sides to have defied the odds stacked against them in the play-offs to emerge with the ultimate prize.
Others in more recent times have given it a shake.
North Queensland (2017), Canterbury (2014), the Warriors (2011), Sydney Roosters (2010) and Parramatta (2009) all reached grand finals from outside the top four, only to fall at the final hurdle.
It is almost impossible to envisage any such giant-killing feats unfolding this season, judging by the gulf in class, and recent form, of the top four teams – Canberra, Melbourne, Canterbury and Penrith – compared to their rivals in the rear-view mirror.
Brisbane, after six wins from seven games, were looking ready to make a run, only to lose Adam Reynolds, Ezram Mam and Selwyn Cobbo to injuries in Thursday’s crippling loss to Melbourne.
Likewise, the Warriors, Dolphins and Manly are walking wounded and running out of troops.
Cronulla had strung together four wins in a row before they slipped up with a 22-14 loss to St George Illawarra on Saturday. Their record against the top four teams – one win from five games this season – is also a concern.
They at least have an ace up their sleeve in a favourable draw, which includes a bye sandwiched between home games against struggling Gold Coast and Newcastle, before a last-round showdown against Canterbury.
The Sharks could potentially finish the season with a three-game unbeaten run. But even then, their record in the past three finals campaigns – one win from six games – is surely a concern.
Perhaps only the ninth-placed Roosters, who hammered the Dolphins 64-12 last weekend, are showing any signs of mounting a belated challenge.
As Billy Slater observed on the Sunday Footy Show, a host of finals contenders are “wobbling”, but not the Tricolours.
“The team that are on the rise are the Roosters,” he said. “They played incredibly well on the weekend and are hitting their straps at the right time.”
The Roosters arguably have the strike power to trouble any team. But they have won only two of their past 25 games against Penrith and Melbourne, which is a worrying trend and a concern for the business end of the season.
They are sitting outside the eight on points differential, and can scarcely afford to drop a game in their final four fixtures, against Canterbury (home), Parramatta (away), Melbourne (away) and South Sydney (home).
In other words, while the Roosters appear the team best equipped to upset the top four status quo, there is no guarantee they will even qualify for the finals. They would probably need to win at least three of their final four games to make it, and they haven’t won more than two consecutive games all season.
All of which suggests 2025 will reaffirm the time-honoured theory that it is almost impossible to win the NRL premiership from outside the top four.
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Penrith might still be some chance, should they come unstuck during their tough run into the finals: Melbourne (home), Canberra (home), Canterbury (away) and the Dragons (away).
But after claiming a top-four position in Newcastle last week, the Panthers appear to be timing their run to perfection.
“I think the reason we’re in this position is we lost sight of the ladder a bit,” Cleary said. “[We’re] just sort of focusing on ourselves and trying to improve each week. A lot of the time it’s just us versus us, and that constant battle of getting better, and it’s no different now.”
The other top four teams – Canberra, Melbourne and Canterbury – are entitled to believe they can bring an end to the Penrith dynasty.
The rest of the finalists, as is usually the case, are more than likely just making up the numbers.
NRL is Live and Free on Channel 9 & 9Now
Michael Chammas and Andrew “Joey” Johns dissect the upcoming NRL round, plus the latest footy news, results and analysis. Sign up for the Sin Bin newsletter.
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