Trend or mirage?

It is still very early in the season, but we are starting to see some evidence of what to expect from certain clubs this year. Below, we have had a crack at picking which starts to 2025 are a trend or mirage.

Adelaide’s 2-0 start: Trend. No team scored more points in 2023 than Matthew Nicks’ Crows, despite them finishing 10th, and they started this year with 21 then 25 goals. Last year was a step backwards, in part because the likes of Josh Rachele struggled, and Adelaide were ravaged by injury in defence – but ex-Pie Mark Keane was a discovery. Now, with Keane, a fit-again Nick Murray, a more-experienced Josh Worrell and the impressive Max Michalanney, they have a good base to hold up, while the offensive explosions take place at the other end. Adelaide recruited well, have one of the game’s best players in Jordan Dawson, an ascending star in Riley Thilthorpe and a good blend of youth and experience, plus role players and guns.

Carlton’s 0-2 start: Mirage. The Blues were woeful in round one, but better on Thursday night against an unbeaten Hawthorn, although their wastefulness in front of goal cost them again in the final term. Sure, Carlton might not have the wealth of brilliant field kicks of other teams – where is Nic Newman when you need him? – and All-Australian defender Jacob Weitering needs more support, but they will stabilise. Winning contested possession and clearance should still serve them well, and would there be such strong reactions if they had not coughed up a 41-point lead to Richmond? It’s not as bad as it seems.

Essendon’s 0-2 start: Trend. The Bombers needed several kids to blossom, and a good injury run, to avoid their depth being exposed. Neither has happened yet. They teased their fans with a strong first half of the season the past two years, but the struggles have begun early in 2025. None of Kyle Langford, Darcy Parish, Jordan Ridley, Matt Guelfi, Jayden Laverde, Peter Wright, Nik Cox, Will Setterfield or Alwyn Davey jnr was available against Adelaide – and not even playing in Melbourne could spare Brad Scott’s side from a heavy defeat. There are concerns across the field, but you can rarely blame Zach Merrett, Jye Caldwell, Sam Durham or Nic Martin.

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Richmond’s 1-1 start: Mirage. The trend was what we saw against Port Adelaide, not the unlikely victory from seven goals down against Carlton. No.1 pick Sam Lalor must have thought this AFL business was easy after his debut, but won only two disposals in the first half and four to three-quarter time in the 72-point smacking from the Power. The Tigers are short on top-end quality, and experienced and reliable players, so most games will be hard – but their fans were spoiled in the Damien Hardwick era. They should set modest expectations on a pass mark, simply hoping to see enough positive glimpses from the club’s young guns.

Hawthorn’s 3-0 start: Trend. But with an asterisk. The Hawks were challenged in all three matches to date, so that is a watch and the hype should be kept in check – but they responded each time, which is a tick. It’s not sustainable for Mabior Chol to effectively be the sole tall target up forward, even with how good Hawthorn’s mosquito fleet is, from Nick Watson to Dylan Moore, Connor Macdonald and Jack Ginnivan. Mitch Lewis’ recovery from an ACL rupture is crucial to the Hawks’ hopes, but they are doing plenty right. Jai Newcombe is the best mid-season draftee ever, and Will Day might be an All-Australian by year’s end.

Geelong’s loss to St Kilda: Mirage. The Saints have now won four of their past six clashes with the Cats, which is an oddity, given the clubs’ overall performances in that time. However, this result should not significantly change how you feel about either side. Bailey Smith was a big late out, while Tom Stewart lasted only 23 minutes either side of a right knee injury, the severity of which is still unknown. Geelong coach Chris Scott paid “Marvel experts” St Kilda credit for their ball use and ability to absorb pressure, but his side lost many of the key statistics early and paid a scoreboard price.