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What we say: This is a tough run home, with four of their five opponents firmly in finals contention, and Sydney still pushing. We’re tipping – without confidence – that the Lions may win only two of these, against the Swans and Hawks, while the Dockers are vulnerable despite their win over the Magpies. Regardless, the Lions will be well-placed come September to challenge for back-to-back flags. Best case: First. Worst case: Fifth.
At last: Matthew Nicks’ Crows are heading back to September for the first time since 2017.Credit: AFL Photos via Getty Images
What we say: It’s refreshing to see the Crows back in finals contention, let alone challenging for the top four; they haven’t featured in September action since 2017. Boasting arguably the best forward line in the competition, they have a relatively friendly run home, with the Eagles and Kangaroos on the menu. This week’s Showdown will be a beauty, and we’re backing them to topple the Magpies in round 23, potentially finishing with the minor premiership (if the Magpies stumble against fellow contenders), but more likely as high as second. Best case: First. Worst case: Fifth.
September dreaming: Steele Sidebottom, Bailey Smith, Jack Ginnivan and Rory Lobb have premiership aspirations.Credit: AFL Photos / Getty
What we say: Wow – the Cats could barely have asked for a smoother run home. The Kangaroos, Bombers and Tigers should be roadkill, while the Power have to make the trip east, and should be beaten (baring in mind the Power prevailed by a goal at GMHBA Stadium last year). That leaves an intriguing trip north to face the Swans in round 23. We like the Swans’ chances there, although that could change if their September dream is over. Best case: First. Worst case: Fifth.
Happy days: Hawthorn coach Sam Mitchell and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese may be in the same camp, but there’s no guarantee the Hawks are alive come September.Credit: AFL Photos
What we say: We’re backing the Hawks to get the job done against the Blues and Demons (they ended a run of nine games without a win over the Demons earlier this year), but their fate will largely be decided against the Crows, Magpies and Brisbane. Pinch at least one win, and they are in; lose all three, which is not out of the question going on their results against the Magpies and Lions earlier this season, and they could have September off. Best case: First. Worst case: Ninth.
Giant grab: Jesse Hogan is keen for GWS to make amends for their recent finals performances.Credit: Fox Footy
What we say: The Giants are on a five-game winning streak (including beating three top-eight teams), but that will be tested by their cross-town rivals. We’ll back them in though, while there will be wins over the Kangaroos and Saints. That leaves two road games – a potentially salty clash against the Bulldogs, and a trip north to face the Suns – to shape where they finish. A top-four finish, or even top two, is within their grasp, but we think they’ll just miss the double chance. Best case: First. Worst case: Seventh.
Getting it done: Justin Longmuir has been under enormous pressure to deliver a major finals run for the Dockers.Credit: AFL Photos via Getty Images
What we say: This time last year, we backed the Dockers to potentially finish in the top four. They missed September entirely. While they appear a more fortified unit now, highlighted by how well they handled the pressurised final minutes against the Magpies, we remain wary. There should be wins over the Eagles and Blues, but can they be confidently backed to win two of their final three games? It’s line ball. Best case: First. Worst case: Ninth.
Sun rising: Fresh off signing a new contract, Matt Rowell is desperate for Gold Coast to finally make a finals splash.Credit: Getty Images
What we say: Just when we thought the Suns were finals ready, they served up a shocker in Adelaide, falling to eighth spot. However, they have an ace up their sleeve, in that they still have a make-up game against the Bombers. They will easily account for the Tigers and Bombers, while the Blues at Marvel Stadium should be another win. That leaves the Lions this week, GWS and the Power to determine where they ultimately finish in the top eight. In a tight finish, the double chance is still there for the taking, but dare we say it, so is a September free of football. Best case: Third. Worst case: Ninth.
Not again: Superstar Marcus Bontempelli and his Western Bulldogs are again battling to make the finals.Credit: Getty Images
What we say: The Bulldogs have been the most frustrating side of 2025. While they boast a playing list that should be in contention for the flag, a leaky defence has meant they find themselves fighting to just make the top eight – yet they could still finish in the top four. Go figure. They should bank wins over the Bombers, Demons and Eagles, leaving their two home games, against the Giants in round 21 and the Dockers in round 24, as arguably the most defining games of the entire season. Not only will they shape the Bulldogs’ fate in a season in which they have a terrible record (1-8) against top eight rivals, but there is plenty riding on these results for their opponents. An ace for the Bulldogs is their super percentage. We still feel they could finish as high as sixth. Best case: Third. Worst case: Ninth.
Tag team: Brodie Grundy and Errol Gulden have been instrumental in the Swans’ late season rise.Credit: for Getty Images
What we say: It’s as simple as this for Dean Cox and his men. They must win all of their remaining games, preferably by heavy margins, and rely on other results going their way if they are to miraculously be alive come September. While the return of Errol Gulden from injury has revitalised the team, the Swans – with three finalists among their run home – will fall short. Best case: Eighth. Worst case: Ninth or lower.
Forget finals: Port Adelaide’s Ken Hinkley and Carlton’s Michael Voss have not had the seasons they wanted.Credit: Getty Images, The Age
What we say: No hope. This shapes as being a season when 14 wins are needed to make the top eight. If that’s the case, the Power are finished. But if there are a string of upsets, and 13 wins is enough to slip into September, and the Power win all of their remaining five games and considerably boost their percentage, Ken Hinkley may get the shock of his life. Regardless, it’s hard not to feel this club has already turned its attention to 2026 when Josh Carr officially takes charge. Best case: Eighth. Worst case: Eleventh.
There is still something for teams out of contention to play for. They won’t be playing in September, but they can have an impact on who else makes it – and these are the games when that could happen.
Seven wins, 11 losses; 28 points
R22: v Gold Coast, Marvel Stadium
The Suns not only have finals within reach, but are eying the top four. The Blues, however, have won their past three against the Suns, including at Marvel Stadium last year.
Six wins, 12 losses; 24 points
R22: v Western Bulldogs, MCG
These teams have not met this season, and split their results last year, with the Demons winning at the MCG. The Dogs are fighting to just make the top eight. A loss here could cruel their hopes.
Six wins, 11 losses; 24 points
R21: v Sydney, SCG
This may seem like an eternity ago to Bombers fans, but they did edge the Swans by eight points at Marvel Stadium in round nine. The Swans need to win all of their remaining games to have any hope of making finals. Could the depleted Dons conjure something from nothing?
Can the injury-hit Bombers play spoiler?Credit: Getty Images
Five wins, 13 losses; 20 points
R24: v GWS, Engie Stadium
The Giants prevailed by 28 points when the teams met in Gather Round, the Saints leaving their run too late. The Giants are finals bound, but the top four could be on the line in this game. Don’t rule out Ross Lyon eking out a shock win, just as the Saints did against the Blues in the corresponding round last year.
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Five wins, 13 losses; 20 points
R24: v Geelong, MCG
The Tigers were thumped by 12 goals at GMHBA Stadium when these teams met a fortnight ago. This may be a long shot, but should the Cats rest a few of their stars, and the Tigers – who have exceeded expectations – get on a roll, the Cats may find their top-two hopes hurt.
Four wins, 13 losses, one draw; 18 points
R24: v Adelaide, Marvel Stadium
It’s been another disappointing season for the Kangaroos, including a six-goal loss to the Crows in Adelaide in round three. The Crows could have a top-two berth riding on this game, or they could opt to rest a key player or two. Could the Kangaroos pounce?
One win, 17 losses; Four points
R20: v Fremantle, Optus Stadium
The Eagles have been nothing short of diabolical, as the pressure to retain Harley Reid rises. One win tells the tale. If they are going to lift and be a finals spoiler, surely it’s against their cross-town rivals, who have a top-four finish in their sights. It’s time this mob got physical.
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What we say: This is a tough run home, with four of their five opponents firmly in finals contention, and Sydney still pushing. We’re tipping – without confidence – that the Lions may win only two of these, against the Swans and Hawks, while the Dockers are vulnerable despite their win over the Magpies. Regardless, the Lions will be well-placed come September to challenge for back-to-back flags. Best case: First. Worst case: Fifth.
At last: Matthew Nicks’ Crows are heading back to September for the first time since 2017.Credit: AFL Photos via Getty Images
What we say: It’s refreshing to see the Crows back in finals contention, let alone challenging for the top four; they haven’t featured in September action since 2017. Boasting arguably the best forward line in the competition, they have a relatively friendly run home, with the Eagles and Kangaroos on the menu. This week’s Showdown will be a beauty, and we’re backing them to topple the Magpies in round 23, potentially finishing with the minor premiership (if the Magpies stumble against fellow contenders), but more likely as high as second. Best case: First. Worst case: Fifth.
September dreaming: Steele Sidebottom, Bailey Smith, Jack Ginnivan and Rory Lobb have premiership aspirations.Credit: AFL Photos / Getty
What we say: Wow – the Cats could barely have asked for a smoother run home. The Kangaroos, Bombers and Tigers should be roadkill, while the Power have to make the trip east, and should be beaten (baring in mind the Power prevailed by a goal at GMHBA Stadium last year). That leaves an intriguing trip north to face the Swans in round 23. We like the Swans’ chances there, although that could change if their September dream is over. Best case: First. Worst case: Fifth.
Happy days: Hawthorn coach Sam Mitchell and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese may be in the same camp, but there’s no guarantee the Hawks are alive come September.Credit: AFL Photos
What we say: We’re backing the Hawks to get the job done against the Blues and Demons (they ended a run of nine games without a win over the Demons earlier this year), but their fate will largely be decided against the Crows, Magpies and Brisbane. Pinch at least one win, and they are in; lose all three, which is not out of the question going on their results against the Magpies and Lions earlier this season, and they could have September off. Best case: First. Worst case: Ninth.
Giant grab: Jesse Hogan is keen for GWS to make amends for their recent finals performances.Credit: Fox Footy
What we say: The Giants are on a five-game winning streak (including beating three top-eight teams), but that will be tested by their cross-town rivals. We’ll back them in though, while there will be wins over the Kangaroos and Saints. That leaves two road games – a potentially salty clash against the Bulldogs, and a trip north to face the Suns – to shape where they finish. A top-four finish, or even top two, is within their grasp, but we think they’ll just miss the double chance. Best case: First. Worst case: Seventh.
Getting it done: Justin Longmuir has been under enormous pressure to deliver a major finals run for the Dockers.Credit: AFL Photos via Getty Images
What we say: This time last year, we backed the Dockers to potentially finish in the top four. They missed September entirely. While they appear a more fortified unit now, highlighted by how well they handled the pressurised final minutes against the Magpies, we remain wary. There should be wins over the Eagles and Blues, but can they be confidently backed to win two of their final three games? It’s line ball. Best case: First. Worst case: Ninth.
Sun rising: Fresh off signing a new contract, Matt Rowell is desperate for Gold Coast to finally make a finals splash.Credit: Getty Images
What we say: Just when we thought the Suns were finals ready, they served up a shocker in Adelaide, falling to eighth spot. However, they have an ace up their sleeve, in that they still have a make-up game against the Bombers. They will easily account for the Tigers and Bombers, while the Blues at Marvel Stadium should be another win. That leaves the Lions this week, GWS and the Power to determine where they ultimately finish in the top eight. In a tight finish, the double chance is still there for the taking, but dare we say it, so is a September free of football. Best case: Third. Worst case: Ninth.
Not again: Superstar Marcus Bontempelli and his Western Bulldogs are again battling to make the finals.Credit: Getty Images
What we say: The Bulldogs have been the most frustrating side of 2025. While they boast a playing list that should be in contention for the flag, a leaky defence has meant they find themselves fighting to just make the top eight – yet they could still finish in the top four. Go figure. They should bank wins over the Bombers, Demons and Eagles, leaving their two home games, against the Giants in round 21 and the Dockers in round 24, as arguably the most defining games of the entire season. Not only will they shape the Bulldogs’ fate in a season in which they have a terrible record (1-8) against top eight rivals, but there is plenty riding on these results for their opponents. An ace for the Bulldogs is their super percentage. We still feel they could finish as high as sixth. Best case: Third. Worst case: Ninth.
Tag team: Brodie Grundy and Errol Gulden have been instrumental in the Swans’ late season rise.Credit: for Getty Images
What we say: It’s as simple as this for Dean Cox and his men. They must win all of their remaining games, preferably by heavy margins, and rely on other results going their way if they are to miraculously be alive come September. While the return of Errol Gulden from injury has revitalised the team, the Swans – with three finalists among their run home – will fall short. Best case: Eighth. Worst case: Ninth or lower.
Forget finals: Port Adelaide’s Ken Hinkley and Carlton’s Michael Voss have not had the seasons they wanted.Credit: Getty Images, The Age
What we say: No hope. This shapes as being a season when 14 wins are needed to make the top eight. If that’s the case, the Power are finished. But if there are a string of upsets, and 13 wins is enough to slip into September, and the Power win all of their remaining five games and considerably boost their percentage, Ken Hinkley may get the shock of his life. Regardless, it’s hard not to feel this club has already turned its attention to 2026 when Josh Carr officially takes charge. Best case: Eighth. Worst case: Eleventh.
There is still something for teams out of contention to play for. They won’t be playing in September, but they can have an impact on who else makes it – and these are the games when that could happen.
Seven wins, 11 losses; 28 points
R22: v Gold Coast, Marvel Stadium
The Suns not only have finals within reach, but are eying the top four. The Blues, however, have won their past three against the Suns, including at Marvel Stadium last year.
Six wins, 12 losses; 24 points
R22: v Western Bulldogs, MCG
These teams have not met this season, and split their results last year, with the Demons winning at the MCG. The Dogs are fighting to just make the top eight. A loss here could cruel their hopes.
Six wins, 11 losses; 24 points
R21: v Sydney, SCG
This may seem like an eternity ago to Bombers fans, but they did edge the Swans by eight points at Marvel Stadium in round nine. The Swans need to win all of their remaining games to have any hope of making finals. Could the depleted Dons conjure something from nothing?
Can the injury-hit Bombers play spoiler?Credit: Getty Images
Five wins, 13 losses; 20 points
R24: v GWS, Engie Stadium
The Giants prevailed by 28 points when the teams met in Gather Round, the Saints leaving their run too late. The Giants are finals bound, but the top four could be on the line in this game. Don’t rule out Ross Lyon eking out a shock win, just as the Saints did against the Blues in the corresponding round last year.
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Five wins, 13 losses; 20 points
R24: v Geelong, MCG
The Tigers were thumped by 12 goals at GMHBA Stadium when these teams met a fortnight ago. This may be a long shot, but should the Cats rest a few of their stars, and the Tigers – who have exceeded expectations – get on a roll, the Cats may find their top-two hopes hurt.
Four wins, 13 losses, one draw; 18 points
R24: v Adelaide, Marvel Stadium
It’s been another disappointing season for the Kangaroos, including a six-goal loss to the Crows in Adelaide in round three. The Crows could have a top-two berth riding on this game, or they could opt to rest a key player or two. Could the Kangaroos pounce?
One win, 17 losses; Four points
R20: v Fremantle, Optus Stadium
The Eagles have been nothing short of diabolical, as the pressure to retain Harley Reid rises. One win tells the tale. If they are going to lift and be a finals spoiler, surely it’s against their cross-town rivals, who have a top-four finish in their sights. It’s time this mob got physical.
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